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PostPosted: August 9th, 2016, 6:08 pm 
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Duke

Joined: June 1st, 2015, 12:47 am
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At a certain point, we are putting in more effort than we get out of this. I don't think we need to look at literally every building on the server to determine populations, seeing as this is just one part of much larger lore. Estimations based on a simple equation are enough and therefore, at least to me, preferable.

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PostPosted: August 9th, 2016, 6:15 pm 
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Duke

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I think there is sufficient scope to do into the amount of detail I've described. If nothing else it will give people more incentive to properly think about each building and what its purpose is, taking some time to give it an interior and flesh out our world

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PostPosted: August 9th, 2016, 6:27 pm 
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The Chairman wrote:
At a certain point, we are putting in more effort than we get out of this. I don't think we need to look at literally every building on the server to determine populations, seeing as this is just one part of much larger lore. Estimations based on a simple equation are enough and therefore, at least to me, preferable.


I agree with this. Like, two people do it as is. Making it more complicated just makes it less likely to happen.

Also, it's really just for comparison.

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PostPosted: August 22nd, 2016, 1:25 am 
Count

Joined: August 29th, 2015, 6:38 pm
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rip thread /bump

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PostPosted: August 23rd, 2016, 3:59 am 
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Duke

Joined: May 30th, 2015, 6:01 pm
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This thread will be unRIPed in two months. Or when I can yell at Chairman about my ideas for it.

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PostPosted: November 19th, 2016, 9:36 pm 
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Duke

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Hey all,

After some discussion about changing the population calculator and boatloads of tinkering on my part, I have come up with a new model for calculating population. There are quite a few similarities with the old model, but it is slightly more complex and does a better job of keeping settlement populations sensible. Here is the process:

Step 1: Counting the Number of Buildings
This is a relatively easy step. When conducting a census, one would first count the total number of buildings. The census-taker should also note the size of each building (i.e. whether they are small, medium, large, or extra large). Small buildings would be things like one-story houses, storage huts, small stables, and other comparably sized buildings. Medium size buildings would be things like multi-story houses, smaller embassies, barracks, and the like. Large buildings would be things like forts, many-storied buildings, great halls, etc. Extra large buildings would be things like castles, cathedrals, palaces, and other such massive constructions that are absurdly large (real world examples include the Gates of Dunn, Redstone Cathedral, and the Ostur). For further clarification of these categories, an album of example builds for each category could be compiled. Once this step is completed, the census-taker should have both the total number of buildings in the settlement and the total number of each kind of building. I will use Miradost (a town by the current standards) as an example to explain the process.

Ex: Miradost has 11 small buildings, 7 medium-sized buildings, 0 large buildings, and 0 extra large buildings, for a total of 18 buildings.

Step 2: Determining Building Value
This is where things start to get interesting. Each building size is assigned a multiplier: 1 for small buildings, 2 for medium, 5 for large, and 10 for extra large. This will give larger buildings more weight in the population calculation. In order to determine the total building value for a settlement, multiply the number of each building in its category by its multiplier, then add those totals together.

Ex: 11 small buildings x 1 + 7 medium buildings x 2 + 0 large buildings x 5 + 0 extra large buildings x 10 = building value of 25

Step 3: Adding Multipliers and Calculating Total Population
Now that we have the building values, we can begin to add the multipliers that give us our population value. This is where it gets a little more complicated. The first modifier changes the building total value, and is equal to the total number of buildings ^ 0.95. The purpose of this multiplier is to boost the population of settlements that have a large number of buildings relative to smaller settlements. The second multiplier changes building value and is equal to the total building value of the settlement ^ 0.6. The new building volume value is then multiplied by the new total building value. This value is then modified again by taking it to the 0.95 power. The final multiplier is just a flat multiplier to be added in to increase the value to something resembling a ‘real’ population total. In this case, it is a flat multiplier of 40. Yes, this is complex, but it allows for the tapering of settlement population for larger settlements and puts proper emphasis on both number of buildings and size of buildings. I feel that this process is more easily understood in equation form:

{[(Total number of buildings ^ 0.95) * (Building Value ^ 0.6)] ^ 0.95} * 40

Ex:
{[(18 ^ 0.95) * (25 ^ 0.6)] ^ 0.95} * 40 = 3,402

Other examples of the population calculations can be seen in the Google Sheet here. The sheet has the formula built into it so settlement populations will automatically be calculated using the above formula. If people are interested, I can give them the ability to edit the sheet to add in their own population, or they can PM their settlement details and I can sort it out for them.

What does everyone think of this new system? I personally think it produces more reasonable settlement sizes given the scale of our world. Also note that these population calculations are more like the cap for that settlement's population. You can always adjust it downward for lore purposes if you so choose.

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PostPosted: November 19th, 2016, 9:43 pm 
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Awesome work here. I was planning on doing another census - I'll do the old and new numbers and see how it compares. Thanks to cerydon!

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PostPosted: November 20th, 2016, 3:48 pm 
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King

Joined: May 30th, 2015, 10:17 am
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your prediction of 2 months was accurate! I'll look into this tomorrow or in the week

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PostPosted: December 7th, 2016, 4:13 am 
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Duke

Joined: June 1st, 2015, 12:47 am
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Image

P= Population Estimate

T = Total Number of Buildings

S = Small Buildings

M = Medium Buildings

L = Large Buildings

X = Extra-large buildings

I've been trying out the above equation as a way of estimating population size for various settlements. I got the following results for various settlements:

Image

This equation does three things differently than the current one:

1. It separates Building Count and Building Value.

2. Instead of using Building Value it creates an estimate of the average density of the settlement and multiplies it by a number based on the Building Total.

3. In doing so, it places even more emphasis on Building Total over the size of buildings.

By "unpacking" the equation, it becomes much easier to tweak, as the different parts and what they do are easier to read.

Image

This part produces the density estimate by taking the number of each kind of building, dividing it by the total number to determine their percentage of the total, weights each percentage, then adds them together. This is then used as a multiplier to augment the results of the next part of the equation.

Image

This part takes the total number of buildings to an exponent (which sets the steepness of the curve) and then multiplies it by a baseline number (which sets the approximate scale that a settlement has to start).

Advantages over the previous equation are the increase ease with which the equation can be modified and the way it arrives at these results (taking the density of the settlement and multiplying it by the number of buildings to find the total, much like finding the mass of an object by taking its density and multiplying it by its volume).

I've created a form for submitting data here. I will analyze it and use it to tweak the equation. Also, I will see if I can't produce a chart for everyone to look at with population totals for each realm and the Empire as a whole.

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PostPosted: December 12th, 2016, 6:52 am 
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King

Joined: May 30th, 2015, 1:05 am
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Location: Wisconsin, USA
Is there a way of determining, objectively, the size of a building? Someone's small building may be another person's medium, and so on and so forth. I think we either need a scale reference or we need the same person (a minister) to come to each city, upon request, to perform a census.

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